The 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup group stage is over, and we’re now entering the knockouts. The tournament has been exciting so far, but the standout games are just starting.
I decided to take a look at the betting odds available for the last 16 and share my predictions for each tie.
In this post, I analyze the performance of each team so far and evaluate their chances to reach the next stage.
Since I’m at it, I also explore the Women’s World Cup outright winner betting market and see if there’s a pick that brings good betting value.
Germany vs. Nigeria Betting Preview
Germany to Win1.18
Nigeria to Win14.00
The first tie of the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup will feature Germany and Nigeria, two teams with a contrasting performance so far in the tournament.
The European country is yet to concede a goal and won Group B by defeating every single opponent. The strongest trait of this German side is the defense that simply suffocates the opposition. The team hasn’t been that impressive at the other end, though, scoring only once against China and Spain.
It’s curious that Germany’s most convincing win came in the last match against South Africa when most of the starters received rest. However, this could be explained by the quality of the opposition.
The good news is that all of Germany’s top players will be back and should be fresh for the clash against Nigeria. The Africans will be happy to be here after a mediocre performance in the group stages.
Nigeria beat South Korea but lost against both Norway and France. That was enough to become one of the best third-placed teams, though.
I think this is the end of the road for the country, and the odds suggest that the bookmakers agree with this assessment. Still, I expect a lot of fight from Nigeria against Germany, so the price of 1.18 for the favorite is hardly appealing.
I have another idea instead. Germany has a strong defense and should be able to keep a clean sheet comfortably. At the same time, Nigeria plays a conservative system that relies on committed defending that was almost enough to snatch a goalless against a strong team like France.
The most logical result here is something like 1-0 or 2-0 in favor of Germany. Since the odds for under 3.5 goals are 1.63, that looks like the best value bet.
Norway vs. Australia Betting Preview
Norway to Win3.20
Australia to Win2.25
The stories of Norway and Australia at the Women’s World Cup so far are similar. Both sides won two games and lost one, finishing second in their respective groups. However, their main strengths are quite different.
Norway mostly relies on the strong defense and the experienced goalkeeper Ingrid Hjelmseth. The side is tough to beat and won’t concede many goals. That’s a good recipe for the knockout stages of any tournament.
One could say that Australia is exactly the opposite. The country has the second-best attack in the World Cup with eight goals scored. Their star striker Sam Kerr is the one to watch, as she scored four in the last match against Jamaica and looks lethal right now.
At the same time, Australia conceded a total of five goals and didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet even once. This will be a problem at some point of the World Cup, and I won’t be surprised if Norway can capitalize.
Another advantage in favor of the European country is that it had one more day to rest between the group stage and the knockouts. This means Norway should be fresher for the last 16 and Caroline Graham Hansen has more time to recover from an injury she received against South Korea.
I expect the key winger to be back for the upcoming clash, and she could have a decisive role.
The game will be close, and Australia has a bit more quality on paper, but I think that Norway has the means to neutralize the strong sides of the opposition and punish every mistake on the other end.
Going for a straight win for Norway is a bit risky, though, so I will pick another market. 888sport offers the price of 2.25 for the team to progress to the next stage, so that includes extra time and penalty.
Since I see this clash as a coin flip, the odds are good enough to take a stab.
PICKNorway to Go Through2.25
England vs. Cameroon Betting Preview
England to Win1.15
Cameroon to Win17.00
No one expected to see Cameroon progress to the last 16 of the Women’s World Cup, but the country showed a relentless desire to fight until the end. A double by Ajara Nchout, including a goal in the fifth minute of injury time, was enough for the African side to beat New Zealand and earn a spot as one of the best teams that finished third in their group.
It was a fairytale scenario for Cameroon, but it probably will end in the last 16. The team will have to face a strong opponent in Group D winner England. The European country didn’t lose a single point in the first stage, earning three victories against solid opponents like Japan, Argentina, and Scotland.
None of England’s performances were particularly impressive, but the consistency on both ends of the pitch was more than enough to progress comfortably.
I believe that the all-around quality of this side will be enough to beat Nigeria, but I’m not exactly certain it will be as easy as the odds suggest.
We saw that England struggled against a very defensive setup by Argentina, and I expect a similar approach from Cameroon. The side will sit deep and defend, hoping to hit the opposition on the counter.
It could be a tight clash, but England should make it at the end. The team had the chance to rotate a bit in the last game of the group stage, so the starters of the side should have enough energy to push hard throughout the whole match.
My prediction here is that England will win 2-0 here, but the first goal will come in the second half. I wouldn’t back that with a bet on the favorite, but the totals market is looking good right now.
1.63 for under 3.5 is very nice indeed. It covers not only my prediction but also likely results such as 1-0, 2-1, and 3-0 in favor of England.
France vs. Brazil Betting Preview
France to Win1.45
Brazil to Win7.00
A lot of people see the host France as one of the few teams that can stop team USA on the road to the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup title. The country was dominant in the group stage, beating South Korea, Norway, and Nigeria.
On the surface, that’s a really strong performance, but I’m not that convinced in the attacking qualities of this team. The match against South Korea aside, France didn’t create that many chances and struggled to find openings at times.
This could prove to be an issue further in the tournament, but the side is undoubtedly great on the other end. If we exclude the howler against Norway, France is simply not allowing the opposition any good opportunities to score.
That will be useful in the knockouts, and the first opponent there is Brazil. The country won two of the three games in the group, but that was only good for the third place. I’m not sure what to make of the performance so far.
Brazil won the opening match against Jamaica comfortably, but that probably was the second-weakest team in the whole World Cup after Thailand.
The next two encounters against Italy and Australia were both close. Brazil lost against the Aussies but somehow beat Italy 1-0 to earn a place in the knockouts.
The team hasn’t been particularly impressive, but it hasn’t been bad, either. The experience of the Brazilian squad and the leadership of the legendary Marta make the country a dangerous opponent in the knockout stages.
France is the favorite on paper, but I don’t think it will be as easy as the odds suggest. The home advantage should help the Europeans, but I expect a tight match.
At this point, I don’t see a good bet here, so I will pass on this one.
Spain vs. USA Betting Preview
Spain to Win9.00
USA to Win1.35
Team USA came to France as the big favorite to lift the FIFA Women’s World Cup. Any doubts that someone might have had are now gone after an exceptional performance in the group stages.
The Americans won all three games comfortably, including an incredible 13-0 victory against Thailand. The likes of Sweden and Chile were no match for team USA, either. Next in line is Spain, and it has the potential to be the first somewhat serious hurdle on the road to the title.
The European side is much better than the results in the group stage suggest. Despite earning only four points, Spain has dominated the ball possession in every match so far and had more than 20 shots per game on average.
The big issue with this team is the ability to convert chances. The lack of composure in the final third is the reason why Spain will face the strongest opponent in the tournament at such an early stage.
On the bright side, the country is considered the underdog by everyone, and that should lift the pressure off of them.
The USA should be really careful, as underestimating a Spanish side that plays at its best could be a fatal mistake.
Based on what we saw so far, I expect both countries to have chances to score. Team USA will most likely take at least one or two of them, but I expect Spain to find the net, too. I believe this match has the potential to be a feast for the neutrals.
I expect the USA to win at the end, but backing the team at the current odds would be a huge mistake. Instead, I see a much better option in the totals market. You can get a price of 1.70 for over 2.5 goals, and that’s by far the best bet for this match.
The USA alone could cover the line, but I can certainly see Spain contributing, too. That’s where my final pick goes.
Sweden vs. Canada Betting Preview
Sweden to Win3.55
Canada to Win2.20
Most ties from the last 16 of the FIFA Women’s World Cup 2019 have a clear favorite, but this is among the few exceptions.
Canada is considered the better side, but not by much. The team was able to finish second in Group E, beating New Zealand and Cameroon but losing against the Netherlands in the decider for the first place.
The biggest strength of the squad is the immense defense. Canada allowed only two shots on target in three games, which is absolutely astonishing. Unfortunately for the country, both went in, but that doesn’t change the fact that Canada can expertly protect the goal.
That’s a great basis for the knockouts, especially since the side poses enough threat on the other end of the pitch. Canada created a decent amount of chances and has found the net in every game so far. I would say this is a team built for the direct eliminations.
The first test in this phase of the tournament will be Sweden. I’m really struggling to evaluate the performance of the European side so far. The country beat Chile and Thailand comfortably, but both opponents were pretty weak.
In the final game of the group stage, Sweden lost against team USA, but that was expected too. In a way, none of the matches so far have been evenly matched.
That makes Sweden unpredictable to an extent, but I like Canada too much. The betting odds of 2.20 for the country to win in regular time are too good to pass. I think something like 1-0 or 2-0 makes the most sense.
PICKCanada to Win2.20
Italy vs. China Betting Preview
Italy to Win1.75
China to Win6.10
No one sees Italy or China as a threat in the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup, but both sides will be more than happy to be at this stage.
Italy is the favorite here after winning a tough group that included Brazil, Australia, and Jamaica. The European team finished with six points, similarly to Brazil and Australia, but the better goal difference helped Italy earn the top spot.
That was more than welcome, as the next opponent is China, arguably one of the weakest sides in the knockouts. The Asian team sneaked as one of the best third teams after a goalless draw against Spain in the last round.
There was a lot of luck involved, as China was dominated for most of the game, but the opposition somehow didn’t find the net. And yet, the Asians have been tough to beat in France and only conceded one goal in the group stage.
The solid defense is a good basis for the knockouts, but the problem is on the other end of the pitch. China doesn’t create many chances and rarely scores. The goal difference in the first phase of the World Cup is 1-1 after three games, and that tells you the whole story.
Each match that involves China has been a slugfest so far, so I expect more of the same. Italy will have to be the more active team and find a way to break the opposition’s defense.
I believe that the Europeans will manage that, and at the same time, they should be able to keep a clean sheet. The big question here is if the odds of 1.75 for Italy to win are enough to place a wager.
I’m on the fence here, so I can’t really recommend that. I can’t advise you against it either. If you can find a higher price, you should probably go for it.
Netherlands vs. Japan Betting Preview
Netherlands to Win1.82
Japan to Win4.40
The last clash from the last 16 of the World Cup features the teams of the Netherlands and Japan. It promises to be one of the closer games of that stage, but let’s dig a bit deeper.
The European country won Group E, beating Canada, Cameroon, and New Zealand. While none of the victories of the Dutch were particularly impressive, the side showed resilience and good soccer.
The comeback win against Canada is a sign of a strong mentality that could help the Netherlands in the knockouts. It is also the reason why the next opponent, Japan, is completely beatable.
The Asian country shouldn’t be underestimated, though, after finishing second in one of the most competitive groups that included England, Scotland, and Argentina.
Japan looked solid in pretty much every game, including the defeat against England. The team can defend well and attack with purpose.
And still, we saw how the Asians struggled to cope with fast runs behind the defense. The Netherlands team has the players to expose that weakness, which is the main reason that makes them the favorites in this match.
However, I don’t really like the odds for any of the markets for this one, and I will have to pass.
2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup Outright Winner Betting Odds and Pick
As you can see, team USA is the overwhelming favorite of the bookmakers to win the tournament. This is the strongest squad in France; there is no doubt about that.
However, the betting odds are too low, and this is the worst bracket, if you ask me. The USA will have to beat Spain in the last 16, which is a tricky opponent, and will then potentially face France in the last eight. The hosts are another tough match for the Americans.
While I do expect the USA to beat both sides, the road to the last four is way too tough for such a price. I have a similar argument against the chances of France and England, too, as they are in the USA’s bracket.
I think the value lies in the odds for Germany to win right now. The team has one of the weakest opponents in the last 16 in Nigeria. On top of that, the side seems like the best in this part of the draw and is the favorite to reach the final, where anything could happen.
That’s why I like the price of 7.5, and that’s my final pick for the outright winner market.
PICKGermany to Win the 2019 Women’s World Cup7.50
The group stage of the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup answered a lot of questions, but the interesting part of the tournament is just starting. I think the last 16 will tell us more about the real potential of the teams left.
What do you think will happen? Do you agree with my betting picks, or do you have your own predictions for the last 16? Feel free to share them in the comments below.
Regardless of which way you choose to bet, make sure you’re wagering with safe and trustworthy betting sites such as the ones we recommend.
Women’s World Cup 2019 – Last 16 Betting Preview and Predictions
My betting picks and predictions for each clash in the last 16 of the FIFA Women’s World Cup and for the outright winner of the tournament.