Daily Fantasy Baseball and MLB Betting – Advice for Friday June 21st

MLB Betting and DFS Picks - Odds and Predictions

It’s only a matter of time before baseball heads to London.

Yeah, you can bet on the London MLB Series, which features a tense AL East clash between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.

I won’t be giving you insight on that series here, but Michael Wynn certainly spent some time on it.

I’m at least back for another run at some money via MLB picks and my favorite daily fantasy baseball plays for Friday night, however.

Last week was plenty of fun, as I nailed my safe pick for the day (Dodgers at -142). If you went the extra mile and bet on them to cover a -1.5 run line (+140) you walked away with some even better value.

I rolled the dice on Arizona at +181 and whiffed, but I did offer a few other MLB upset picks with the Cardinals (+105) and Giants +125) paying off.

As for the MLB DFS scene, I hit quite a few big picks. Austin Hedges had a solid outing and was a bargain, while Freddie Freeman, Rougned Odor, J.D. Martinez (twice), Manny Machado and Alex Bregman all went yard.

For those keeping score at home, my favorite six bats all worked out and five of them all sent balls into the stands. No, I didn’t tell you to roster Hunter Renfroe (three homers!), but boy, it doesn’t get much better than that.

My final MLB DFS lineup included four of those bats. Sadly, my tiny A’s stack was garbage and Blake Snell held back a pretty fun team.

I’m back to do it all again with even better results on Friday. Let’s take a look at the latest MLB odds and go from there to today’s best MLB bets and top DFS picks.

Early MLB Betting Odds For Friday, 6/21

Your first step before placing bets or finalizing your MLB DFS lineups should be to check out the most up to date MLB betting lines you can find.

I’ll be rolling with BetOnline for tonight’s, but you should check out the best MLB betting sites before actually putting your cash in play.

Without further haste, here’s the latest lines for Friday, 6/21.

  • New York Mets N/A vs. Chicago Cubs N/A
  • Baltimore Orioles N/A vs. Seattle Mariners N/A
  • Tampa Bay Rays N/A vs. Oakland Athletics N/A
  • Miami Marlins (+1.5) -112 vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) -108
  • Atlanta Braves (+1.5) -166 vs. Washington Nationals (-1.5) +146
  • San Diego Padres (+1.5) -205 vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) +175
  • Houston Astros (+1.5) -145 vs. New York Yankees (-1.5) +125
  • Toronto Blue Jays (+1.5) +140 vs. Boston Red Sox (-1.5) -160
  • Detroit Tigers (+1.5) -118 vs. Cleveland Indians (-1.5) -102
  • Chicago White Sox (+1.5) -140 vs. Texas Rangers (-1.5) +120
  • Cincinnati Reds (+1.5) -182 vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) +162
  • Minnesota Twins (-1.5) +100 vs. Kansas City Royals (+1.5) -120
  • Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) +140 vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+1.5) -160
  • San Francisco Giants (+1.5) -165 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) +145
  • Colorado Rockies (+1.5) -140 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) +120

The pricing could change over the course of the day and you’ll want to keep an eye out for any big weather issues. Tornadoes and rain have been real problems lately, with the Washington Nationals seeing games PPD in two consecutive days this week.

You’ll be fine if you track it, while there are several websites with good weather data up to lineup lock. This mostly applies to DFS, but you also can use the weather to impact how you bet on MLB games (wind blowing out at Wrigley, etc).

Safest MLB Bet for 6/21

There are a lot of games to like on tonight’s 15-game MLB betting slate, but the one I have my eye on is the Astros at +139. I love the value here so much that I’m not even saving this for my value pick tonight.

I know going on the road into Yankee Stadium appears daunting and Jamex Paxton isn’t a fun arm to face, but Jose Altuve is back and Houston is starting to get healthy. Pax has also not been himself for a few games now. Facing a deadly Astros offense in a hitter’s haven may not help matters.

There is risk here, but the Astros are pretty good (21-16) on the road and also hit southpaws (6th in batting average, 10th in homers) as well as anyone. If Paxton’s form isn’t spot on, he and his Yankees could be vulnerable here.

Top MLB Value Bet For 6/21

The Astros could easily just be my favorite MLB underdog pick, but I wanted to hand out some extra value with my top play this week. I’ll keep it going with the Marlins at +191.

Aaron Nola is a very good pitcher, but he’s been hit or miss all season. He’s usually good at home, but the Marlins have been flashing upgraded power for weeks now. Nola has also not been in great form, with awful showings in two of his last three outings.

Miami could steal an edge here, while they also enjoy a huge park upgrade as they get out of Marlins Park. This is also a division rivalry game and everyone knows those can go either way.

I actually like Nola for DFS purposes due to his talent and price, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Marlins snuck out a tight one.

Other Elite MLB Underdog Picks

The Marlins and Astros could offer plenty of value if you plan on betting on MLB tonight, but I’ve got a few more underdog plays I really like.

  • Atlanta Braves +124
  • San Diego Padres +104
  • St. Louis Cardinals +100

Dallas Keuchel makes his debut for Atlanta, who will have a fun rivalry clash in D.C. with the Nats. Washington is on fire right now and plays their best at home, but nobody is hotter than the Braves.

The Padres are mediocre on the road, but they have much improved power this year. They also face a Pirates team they should be able to beat, so while the value isn’t obscene it sure beats backing Pittsburgh.

The Cardinals are heading back in the right direction these days and are at their best at Busch Stadium. They’re a mild home dog, which is something I’m always going to be interested in. They face a hot Angels team, but the pitching is a wash in this spot. I’ll favor the home team.

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks For 6/21

I sincerely hope my MLB picks treat you well, but last week was awesome for MLB DFS purposes. My final team didn’t win big, but my favorite picks sure would have helped you.

I encourage you to take this all into consideration – betting odds, my top picks and my final squad – and alter it as needed. If I felt I always had the 100% right calls, I’d just be taking down every GPP with one team.

It’s not always that easy, but hopefully my picks aid your process and help you win. With that, let’s dive into my favorite daily fantasy baseball picks for Friday night at DraftKings:

Chris Sale is very expensive and leads a really good pitching pool tonight. He may feel like a must at first glance, but I can understand fading him. I’d prefer to own him, but especially in GPPs, you can look elsewhere.

I consider pretty much all paths in tournaments, but realistically, I’ll be sticking to just this pitcher pool tonight.

  • Chris Sale – Boston Red Sox ($12k)
  • Trevor Bauer – Cleveland Indians ($11.1k)
  • Walker Buehler – Los Angeles Dodgers ($10.8k)
  • Matthew Boyd – Detroit Tigers ($9.7k)
  • Aaron Nola – Philadelphia Phillies ($8k)
  • Sonny Gray – Cincinnati Reds ($7.9k)
  • Martin Perez – Minnesota Twins ($7.6k)
  • Ariel Jurado – Texas Rangers ($6.5k)
  • Joe Musgrove – Pittsburgh Pirates ($5.5k)

I’m sorry, but I’m not using Stephen Strasburg against this red hot Braves offense. I also am not enamored with a few of the mid-range guys (Mike Leake!), as they feel like traps.

James Paxton and Dallas Keuchel obviously stand out as insane values. Kuechel is making his Braves debut in a tough spot, though, while Pax has not been good and gets the Astros at Yankee Stadium.

Sale and Bauer are the top studs to target and both have high upside matchups. They’re in tough parks, though, so when you factor in risk I think it’s worth it to pay for Sale.

Buehler has been great and will be at home against a Rockies offense down Trevor Story. He should be fine, but he’s awfully expensive. Matthew Boyd feels like a risky play and may not get the win, but Cleveland isn’t the best against southpaws on the year (23rd in batting average).

I have the Marlins as a sneaky upset play, but Nola is too cheap against an offense that still isn’t scary on paper. Gray demolished the Brewers (30 fantasy points) earlier this year, too, while Perez, Jurado and Musgrove are pure price/matchup plays.

I really felt it with my bats last week, so hopefully I can keep the good times rolling. Here is my favorite play at every main position for 6/21:

  • C: Martin Maldonado – Kansas City Royals ($2.7k)

Maldonado isn’t the best catcher, but he’s cheap and he’s heating up with five hits over his last three games. He’s also at home against Martin Perez, who has historically given up hard contact to right-handed bats.

You can always pay up for Gary Sanchez and the like, but this is a weak position. I’m already spending on pitcher at least once tonight, so I’ll likely be hunting for some extra funds. Maldonado gets me there.

  • 1B: Paul Goldschmidt – St. Louis Cardinals ($3.8k)

Goldy gets rookie pitcher Griffin Canning tonight. So far Canning has had some difficulty against fellow righties, while Goldy is just too cheap.

C.J. Cron is a fun option at $4.4k and I love the Twins tonight. I just can’t ignore the savings here.

  • 2B: Jose Altuve – Houston Astros ($3.8k)

Altuve is understandably a bit rusty after a long layoff, but he’s still one of the best hitters in baseball. He’s also in a hitter’s park against a guy in James Paxton that he’s obliterated in the past.

I also don’t mind Rougned Odor as a one-off or as part of a Rangers stack. But again, the value is too good to bypass.

  • 3B: Eduardo Escobar – Arizona Diamondbacks ($5.2k)

I like the Twins and Rangers, but I also like the D’Backs. They’re at home and whether or not the roof is open tonight, they look fun against Jeff Samardzija, who offers up loads of contact.

Shark has not been great against lefties in 2019, giving up a .210 ISO, 37% hard hit rate and 46% fly ball rate. Escobar is a great one-off that few will pay up for, but if you can fit the Arizona stack you need to consider it.

  • SS: Didi Gregorius – New York Yankees ($3.8k)

Brad Peacock walks a lot of batters and has issues with lefties. Gregorius brings power to the table and Peacock’s weak .241 ISO versus left-handed bats makes him an elite play. So does his weak price tag.

  • OF: Bryce Harper – Philadelphia Phillies ($4.4k)

I also love J.D. Martinez and all Red Sox, but who doesn’t? Another popular stack could be the Phillies, which Harper heads at home in a hitter’s park against Sandy Alcantara.

Alcantara has had some nice outings, but he got rocked the last time he battled the Phillies and he gets a big park downgrade. Harper hasn’t had a great first season in Philly, but he has a decent matchup here and is arguably too cheap.

I won’t force him in, but it’s always tough to fade him at a discounted price.

My Favorite MLB DFS Lineup For 6/21

I like to fit in my favorite plays with my top stacks when I can, but tonight my favorite team is going to be far more GPP-friendly.

I still stand by the above solo picks, but I think we can soak up some value, use some chalk plays and go contrarian in an effort to rise up the standings.

  • SP1: Chris Sale – Boston Red Sox ($12k)
  • SP2: Joe Musgrove – Pittsburgh Pirates ($5.5k)
  • C: Martin Maldonado – Miami Marlins ($2.7k)
  • 1B: Paul Goldschmidt – St. Louis Cardinals ($3.8k)
  • 2B: Jose Altuve – Houston Astros ($3.8k)
  • 3B: Eduardo Escobar – Arizona Diamondbacks ($5.2k)
  • SS: Didi Gregorius – New York Yankees ($3.8k)
  • OF: Ketel Marte – Arizona Diamondbacks ($5.5k)
  • OF: David Peralta – Arizona Diamondbacks ($4.4k)
  • OF: Curtis Granderson – Miami Marlins ($3.3k)

I still think we need to eat the appropriate chalk and for me that’s going to be Sale. Arizona could still be relatively chalky due to a great matchup, but they’re not cheap. A nice three-man stack there could still be low-owned and I love their upside.

Altuve, Goldy and Didi are three great hitters with loads of upside, yet they’re all under $4k. Jose Ramirez ($3.5k) is worth a look, too, but those three guys are pretty tough to pass up.

Maldonado is just one way to get the team I want, while Granderson is some power in a park upgrade. I don’t love targeting Aaron Nola, but a one-off power bat against him isn’t crazy.

Hopefully my top picks and final lineups helps you in some regard. Feel free to comment with your favorite picks and/or how you did last week. Thanks for stopping by and good luck!

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Daily Fantasy Baseball and MLB Betting – Advice for Friday June 21st

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Daily Fantasy Baseball and MLB Betting – Advice for Friday June 21st

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Previewing Friday night’s MLB slate by analyzing the MLB betting scene and breaking down daily fantasy baseball options. Includes odds and picks.

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Noah Davis

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GamblingSites.com

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